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Speak Up, Oxford!

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April 14, 2019
Growth forecasts and land need in Oxford County

Oxford County is expected to grow in population by 47,000 and add approximately 21,000 new jobs over the next 30 years. This growth forecast comes from a study by Hemson Consulting Ltd., commissioned by Oxford County to update the growth assumptions and land supply (including identifying any potential land need) for Oxford and all eight Area Municipalities.

The study, referred to as the Phase One Comprehensive Review, predicts substantial growth in the County over the forecast period, driven largely by people from the Greater Golden Horseshoe relocating to Oxford. The general distribution of growth within the County is not expected to shift substantially, with most growth concentrated in the City of Woodstock (50%) and the Town’s of Tillsonburg and Ingersoll (25%) with the remainder being distributed across the five rural Townships (25%).

Draft forecast: Total Population Oxford County (2016-2046). 2016 = 113,940, 2021 = 122,890, 2026 = 130,300, 2031 = 138,000, 2036 = 146,060, 2041 = 153,680, 2046 = 161,060. Total growth (2016-2041) 41,000.

By 2046, the number of households is expected to grow by approximately 18,300.  All Area Municipalities are forecast to experience substantial housing growth, with the highest concentration in Woodstock, Tillsonburg and Ingersoll.

Draft Forecast: Total Occupied Households Oxford County (2016-2046). 2016 = 44,280, 2021 = 48,230, 2026 = 51,330, 2031 = 54,410, 2036 = 57,430, 2041 = 60,070, 2046 = 62,600. Growth (2016-2046) 15,790

Substantial employment growth is also expected, with strong ties to the Greater Golden Horseshoe, and a significant number of inbound commuters traveling to auto plants and other industrial activities in Woodstock, Tillsonburg and Ingersoll. The employment landscape will also see growth in commercial and service-based jobs, to serve the growing population.

Draft Forecast: Total Employment Oxford County 2016-2046. 2016 = 57,300, 2021 = 62,100, 2026 = 64,600, 2031 = 67,200, 2036 = 70,400, 2041 = 74,100, 2046 = 78,400. Growth (2016-2046) 21,100.

Findings from the study will inform growth management planning in the County, including the potential need to expand urban and rural settlement boundaries to accommodate forecasted growth. It will also inform a range of other County projects and initiatives, including Official Plan amendments, development charges, secondary planning, infrastructure master plans, housing strategies, etc.

The study will update the Population, Household and Employment Forecasts and Employment Lands Study completed by Watson and Associates in 2014.

The draft findings from the Oxford County Phase One Comprehensive Review report were presented to County Council on April 10th, 2019.

Read Council report CP 2019-104 – Phase 1 Comprehensive Review Study – Updated County and Area Municipal Growth Forecasts and Land Need Analysis

Municipal Growth Forecasts and Land Need Analysis Presentation

More information & Questions

If you would like more information about the Phase One Comprehensive Review or have any related questions or comments we invite you to submit them here. 

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Read the report


Executive Summary

I. Introduction

II. Residential growth in Oxford higher than historical trends amidst broader demographic change

III. County continued to experience employment growth amidst broader economic shift

IV. County-wide growth outlook

V. Area municipal growth allocations

VI. Land need assessment

VIII. Conclusion and next steps

Appendix A & B

See a one-page summary of the findings from the DRAFT Phase One Comprehensive Review here. (PDF)

Next steps

1. Post on Speak Up, Oxford for public information. 2. Consult with Area Municipalities on Draft Study Findings. 3. Consult with Area Municipalities on Draft Study Findings.. 4. Present Final Phase One Comprehensive Review Study to County Council for approval.

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